Toronto Real Estate Reverses Course Post-Election, and Jumps $23,000

Greater Toronto real estate prices are once again soaring after a post-election boom. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows composite home prices climbed in September. Price growth had been decelerating after peaking in the summer, but accelerated suddenly. Only one month of acceleration is too early to say the slowdown has reversed. However, the size of the monthly climb makes it hard to see this as any sort of cooling effect.

Greater Toronto Real Estate Prices Jumped $23,200

Greater Toronto existing-home prices are once again soaring post-election. The composite benchmark price across TRREB rose to $1,082,400 in September, up 2.19% ($23,200) from the previous month. Prices are now 19.09% ($173,500) higher than they were at this time last year. A 2-point jump is an absurdly large increase for any asset over a month, never mind a home.

Greater Toronto Benchmark Price

The price of a typical composite home across Greater Toronto.

Source: TRREB; Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto’s Suburbs Are Seeing Prices Rise Much Faster

The City of Toronto saw composite home prices move in the same direction, but at a slower rate. The composite benchmark reached $1,108,500 in September, up 1.00% ($10,900) from the month before. Prices are now 10.37% ($104,200) higher than the same month last year. This is a very large gain, but half the rate TRREB has grown. That would mean suburban price growth is significantly outpacing growth in the City.

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Greater Toronto Home Price Growth Accelerated

Both regions have seen the annual rate of price growth decelerate until last month. Annual growth peaked in June for both TRREB and the City’s benchmark prices. Since then they’ve both decelerated right into August, with last month changing course.

Greater Toronto Benchmark Price Change

The annual percent change of TRREB’s benchmark price for all home types.

Source: TRREB; Better Dwelling.

Monthly growth in September was so large, it was able to push annual growth higher. At a nearly 2 point jump, annual growth made a similar increase. The City saw the composite accelerate at a smaller rate, but it was still a big increase.

One month isn’t a trend, but the size of this climb makes it unlikely to be a blip. Tailwinds for higher home prices include subsidies and other promised demand inducement schemes. Headwinds for lower prices include higher rates, flight to Atlantic Canada, and affordability. Which one wins will be largely dependent on how all-in Canada is willing to go on a housing economy.

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