The real estate chain is expected to gradually usher in valuation repair and fundamental improvement.
Last week, the central bank said it had instructed major banks to keep real estate credit in a steady and orderly manner. At the same time, it said that the financial sector will cooperate with other parts and local governments to provide financial support for the start of the project. We believe that the central bank has released a pick-up signal for sales regulation and financing support at the end of September, while the central bank’s statement this week is likely to gradually boost real estate development lending.
We assume that if the progress of real estate projects is not affected by capital and other factors, the demand for completed building materials may appear at the beginning of next year, followed by a downward period. However, we believe that due to the previous shortage of real estate funds and related factors such as power constraints and reducing the capacity utilization rate of some links in the industrial chain (such as glass deep processing), the current completion demand has been delayed, which is also reflected in the sluggish demand characteristics of periodic products such as glass in the peak season. In this case, we expect that the peak of completion demand may be delayed and the overall volatility may be reduced. We believe that in the short term, after the marginal improvement at the capital end, demand is expected to rebound in stages, glass is expected to be affected by a two-way improvement in supply and demand, shipping speed and prices are expected to be boosted, and consumer building materials and cement varieties are also expected to benefit; in the medium and long term, the weakening of the downward fluctuation of the industry is more conducive to the embodiment of the consumer building materials leader itself α.
Continue to recommend pro-cyclical varieties in the short term, pay attention to the real estate chain policy and capital improvement
1) We expect that the subsequent production-side demand is expected to hit bottom and pick up, and steady growth is also expected to marginal boost infrastructure demand. Supply-side logic affects stock price elasticity: cement is limited by energy consumption, and the high price elasticity caused by supply contraction is expected to continue in Q4; the demand side of glass fiber is driven by wind power, overseas and other downstream, and the increment on the supply side is limited; the tight balance between supply and demand leads to a rise in product prices, and the leading performance is expected to exceed expectations. Glass supply is more rigid, demand has been affected by downstream funds and power cuts, but inventory may continue to usher in a downward period in the near future, and the trend of completion is expected to be better.
2) Consumer building materials may still be affected by the real estate boom, capital chain, and the cost pressure brought about by rising commodity prices in the short term, but in the medium to long term, leading companies have opened channel changes. Scale effect is expected to make the industry concentration continue to increase, consumer building materials is still the medium-and long-term preferred track for the building materials plate.
Cement recommends Shangfeng cement, Huaxin cement, conch cement; glass fiber recommends Chinese boulder, medium wood technology, etc.; glass recommends Qibin Group, Xinyi Glass, Jinjing Technology, Follett (jointly covered with Dianxin), etc.; consumer building materials recommend Oriental Yuhong, Mona Lisa, Yashi Chuangeng, Beixin building materials, three trees, Keshun shares and so on.